"It should be ambitious and credible," said U.N. Secretary General Ban
Ki-moon in his special speech at the Asia leadership conference held in Seoul
last May
Here "it" means "Korean greenhouse gas reduction
plan" known as INDC or the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, which is
most critical element for the successful launch of the Post 2020 New Climate
Regime. And the historical final negotiation for that will be done at the COP 21
(21st Conference of the Parties of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate
Change.
He said so in front of many global leaders
including the President Park Geun-hye while publicly recognizing Korean efforts
for Green Growth initiated by the previous government.
Then, why did he point out "ambitious and credible"? The
word "ambitious" is understandable.
Because wherever he
goes, he has been emphasizing the importance of the degree of ambition for
cutting emissions to keep this hot planet under control. And usual U.N. jargon
for this is "fair and ambitious" meaning every country should do its due part
reflecting respective capability.
Then again, why did he
choose rather the exceptional word "credible" in his home country event?
A few weeks later after his speech, Korean government
revealed four scenarios for 2030 greenhouse reduction target, all of which fell
short of the 2020 target that was set-up in 2009 by the preceding one.
This "back sliding" was done without due public
participation; only a one time hearing so far. In particular, information about
the recent years' emission trajectory was never shared with the public. The
trajectory is indicating so-called "decoupling phenomenon" between economic
growth rate and emission growth rate. For example, in the year 2014, the
authority estimated that absolute amount of emission decreased by 0.6 percent
while the economy grew by 3 percent. There might be various factors for this to
happen and it is too early to tell whether Korea has reached its emission peak,
I admit. The bottom line is that this kind of decoupling happened for the first
time in Korean industrial history and can be possibly translated as a beginning
of a new change, the Green Growth Initiative has long dreamt of.
The chief of the related department, it is widely told,
threatened to punish informants for this record instead of encouraging it to be
shared with the public. I do not wish to be in line with the recent Council on
Foreign Relations report on Korea which wrote "The current administration has
tended to downplay any issues where "successes" might be associated with the
legacy and efforts of the preceding administration. (CFR report on Middle-Power
Korea: Contributions to the Global Agenda, June 24)
What I
am saying is non-disclosure of such information is simply against the "3.0
government" principle. This administration promised to share government
information with the public as much as possible.
What's
funny is that, last March, the International Energy Agency already revealed
similar findings on flattening global emissions based on each country's
statistics including China and Korea as well.
As we know
now, the government came up with new reduction plan overriding four scenarios.
Let alone the content of the new pledge, the primary deliberative body, Green
Growth Committee, was never given a proper role to play as is its legal duty.
According to key member of the committee, they received the final plan just one
day before the official deliberation process. This is quite contrary to the
account of the Environment Minister Yoon Seong-kyu that the government adopted
the new proposal recommended made by the Committee (in his contribution to
JoongAng Ilbo on July 7).
Calculating the "Business As
Usual" (BAU) for 2030 still remains mysterious. For example, the government
projected that the portion of the manufacturing sector's added value in the
economy would rise up from 31.1 percent (2012) to 36 percent in the year 2030. I
truly want to believe Korea could do such marvelous thing in the fierce
competition with emerging countries around the world. Compelling rationale and
data should be also shared with the international community if Korea wants to
avoid shameful evaluation such as that by Climate Action Tracker, a Western
think tank, which downgraded Korea from sufficient to inadequate.
I do not know for sure whether Secretary General Ban
foretold this when he mentioned "credible."
Looking at the
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome situation, however, it was not information
sharing but closure that resulted in distrust and conflict.
It is often said Korea has achieved so many "incredible"
things and I have been one of the people to be proud of that. But what good
would there be left ― it strikes me on second thoughts ― if these were not based
on "Credible Korea" first?
Kim Sang-hyup is a visiting
professor at the Graduate School of Green Growth at KAIST and chairman for Our
Common Future. He also served as senior secretary for green growth to former
President Lee Myung-bak.